- Volume 13, Number 2 (2025)
INTERVENTION ANALYSIS OF MEXICAN PESO TO NIGERIAN NAIRA EXCHANGE RATES DURING NIGERIA'S ECONOMIC RECESSIONS
Ngozi Uchenna Nwachukwu
Modelling the Mexican Peso to the Nigerian Naira exchange rates with the standard Box-Jenkins ARIMA model in the presence of external events might be misleading and generating forecasts from such model may be unreliable. This study posits that the exchange rate between Mexican Peso and Nigerian Naira was exclusively influenced by the economic downturn experienced in Nigeria during the years 2016 and 2020. Thus, the intervention is described as a step function
A MATHEMATICAL STUDY OF COVID-19 EPIDEMICS: THE ROLE OF FEAR OF INFECTION
Samuel Oluwaseun Akinyemi, Fatimah Adebimpe Olowu
The fear associated with an infectious disease plays a major role in the management of the infectious disease. Thus, this study tried to assess the impact of fear of infection on the spread of COVID-19 using a mathematical modelling approach. The model considered was shown to have two equilibria points, namely, the COVID-19 free equilibrium (CFE) and the COVID-19 persistent equilibrium (CPE). The computed reproduction number ( RC1) was used to validate the local stability of the CPE whenever RC1 is above one while the CFE is globally asymptotically stable RC1 1. Next, we show that the condition RC1 1 ...
MODELING NIGERIAN NARROW MONEY AND QUASI-MONEY USING BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH
Ifeoma Blessing Ijeoma
This study examines the application of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model in modeling Nigerian narrow money and quasi money as a guide for monetary policy, using monthly data from 2015 - 2022. The objectives include to; model and estimates the interaction between Nigerian narrow money and quasi money, determine the direction of causality, significance of the causality among the variables, and determine the fractions in each variable explained by the changes in the other variables. The data used for the study were narrow money and quasi money, extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria online statistics bulletin. The model used in...
A MEDIAN-BASED APPROACH TO FISHER’S TEST: OVERCOMING THE INFLUENCE OF OUTLIERS IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Chigozie Ugochukwu Okeke, Amarachi Nkechi Igwe
The study considered Median based Fisher’s Test: An alternative to Fishers’ Least Significant Difference in the presence of outlier for interval data. It started with running outlier test by using Grubbs method and analysis of variance for three population samples were carried out. In the general sense, in problems like this, the hypothesis is tested, if the null hypothesis is rejected, and the alternative hypothesis accepted, that is to say, there is significant difference in the means of the samples, one will usually conduct multiple comparison test, to know the pair that contributed to the significant difference. For the purpose...